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Apr. 4th, 2013 02:24 pm
symbioidlj: (Lenin)
[personal profile] symbioidlj
So like - is ANYONE following anything that's happening w/N. Korea?

Half the time I don't remember what I post or not... And apparently I've never posted about this...

I'm trying not to get caught up in the Reddit free-for-all (lord knows the comments there are disgusting, warmongering pieces of shit nationalist pigs).

Anyways, there's tons of fucking news happening. From what I can tell, this is a sort of timeline.

1) N. Korea launches a satellite. The west (sorry, the US) freaks out (ok, Japan, too). "ICBM!!!!" they yell. Not quite. There was another article that I can't seem to find now (I thought it was on the N. Korea Tech Blog that I sub to, but it wasn't that, perhaps it was Wired) that basically said, the trajectory and everything else about the launch has absolutely no connection to ICBM. Yes, they got something into space, but that's a far cry from trying to target a long range missile towards another country on another continent. Regardless. That's only part of the issue.

2) We know Kim Jong Il died, and his son Kim Jong Un has been doing some interesting things. He seems, on one hand to be more opening the country towards consumer style goods. However, there was speculation that he might not pushing the military first strategy (especially since his initial removal of Vice Marshall Ri Yong Ho). And while there was a lot of speculation by imperialists and capitalists a lot of analysts generally thought that it wasn't necessarily a sign of massive change.

3) In the meantime, discussion for the past couple years has been ongoing about what people are calling a NATO of the Pacific. Here's one article on the subject, and here's a globalresearch.ca article for two quick overviews of the idea.

4) The radio interview I heard discussing this mentioned specifically that this is a long term strategic thing, and putting into place the context of Iraq/Afghanistan and the control of that region in general, and resources in particular (not just oil, for example, see this article about the vast mineral reserves in Afghanistan that was discovered by the US DoD and geologists...

5) There is also a sort of Free Trade Agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Since 2010, negotiations have been taking place[8] for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a proposal for a significantly expanded version of TPSEP. The TPP is a proposed free trade agreement under negotiation by (as of December 2012) Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam.[9] Japan has expressed its desire to become a negotiating partner,[10] but not yet joined negotiations as the TPP became a major issue in Japan's 2012 election.[11] South Korea was asked by the US to consider joining the TPP[12] but declined for the time being.[13]

6) Seeing this process happening, there's no doubt that there's a long term strategic push into the area by the US.

7) Russia knows this, being as it has allies throughout the region (Georgia, Belarus and Syria -- not directly in these regions, but somewhat near them -- admittedly this is a vast region of the world that I'm discussing), and it has been doing wargames in the Black Sea . A sort of show of strength.

8) In the meantime, going back to North Korea... KJU was seeming to liberalize the economy, and then the rocket launch happened. Then China agreed with the US to strengthen sanctions against North Korea (this time against luxury goods).

9) Even more in the meantime, speaking of wargames, the US has been conducting war games with S. Korea recently as part of annual exercises.

10) Ever since these wargames have started, the bellicosity of N. Korea has been ratcheted up to levels much higher than a long time. They have cut off the Emergency Contact phone line connection with South Korea (think US/Soviet "Red Phone"). They have stopped allowing S. Koreans into the joint economic complex. They have unilaterally called an end to the Ceasefire with S. Korea and have outright threatened to strike the US with Nukes.
(yes, it's laughable, but it's more bellicosity).

11) In the meantime, the US is bringing more and more firepower to the area, the most latest that I have heard is F22 Stealth Bombers.

12) Now, you have China throwing troops on their border with N. Korea

13) The Philippine Communist Party makes a statement about being dragged into a war against N. Korea.:

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) warned that the constant presence of US naval warships and armed American troops in the Philippines may drag the country to military tensions in the Korean pensinsula and a possible US-led war of aggression against the people and government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and called for an immediate end to the “all-out access policy” of allowing US-led foreign troops unrestricted intrusion to Philippine territory.

(the implication here, of course, is that if the US *does* end up engaging in a war, that the CPP would engage in strikes against US bases in the Philippines in a given war).

I am trying not to get all caught up in the rhetoric of either the people who fear WWIII (though I think this does feel an awful lot like we are edging closer and closer to something pretty bad, maybe not WWIII, but...)

People are saying that China doesn't want a war, but nobody knows, exactly, what side China would end up fighting on. Will they throw N. Korea to the US or help fight against the US? It's hard to tell. Will other countries join in (S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan, I imagine would join in on the US side... As would the Philippines)... But the various Communist parties might engage in sabotage and strikes against the various militaries.

We'll see, I guess...
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